2022 is already upon us. Christmas is over, back to bad moods and rubbish weather (if you reside in the northern hemisphere). Thankfully the most depressing time of year is loaded with some of the most amazing video game releases of the year, across Xbox, PlayStation and Nintendo systems. This isn’t just limited Q1 either, indeed Qs 2,3 & 4 all look to be jam packed full of games and/or announcements for all gamers. Today, I want to look at Team Xbox.
Just like the Shareholder meetings, I am going to break down my analysis of the year by quarter (but not by financial year). Unlike shareholder meetings though, I will present you with a reasonable amount of speculation, including what has been confirmed as I build my theory. In each quarter, I will explore what we expect to see, what we can hope to see and what I (and hopefully others) would like to see.
Xbox starts 2022: news and Game Pass announcements
Q1. January – March 2022. January for Xbox starts off slow compared to Nintendo, who have Pokémon Legends: Arceus! PlayStation have a slower January too but have a very strong February line-up. For Xbox, the year starts in February (with regards to new games) but maybe doesn’t come out swinging as hard as PlayStation and Nintendo. What they do have though, is announcements and Game Pass additions.
Nevertheless, gamers everywhere can feel very lucky February 2022. Those looking for Valentine’s gifts for their other halves look no further! We have the shortest month of the year packed with AAA games launching in it. From a games point of view, February brings to Xbox: Dying Light 2, Crossfire X & Elden Ring.
Xbox will look to finish the quarter on a high with the release of the highly anticipated Tunic, a charming Zelda-like game starring a plucky little fox with a sword. 2022 looks to be a great year for indie games on Xbox. Based solely on game releases we know about, I think PlayStation will have the stronger Q1. Dying Light and Elden Ring are both full on multi-plats, coupled with the launch of Horizon Forbidden West in February and GT7 in March too, I think Xbox fans could well be looking over their shoulders at PlayStation gamers a little enviously.
During these months, I think we will see a couple more surprises drop into Xbox Game Pass, maybe some more teases of Redfall and/or Starfield. In fact, I would bet your bottom dollar on it. One thing that has helped Xbox turn things around in recent years is the execution of their press strategy. They are always in the news, and I see them continuing with this moving through 2022. This segues very nicely into discussing Q2…
The first AAA Next-Gen experience on Xbox?
Q2 – A big few months, mostly from an announcements point of view, especially as one of the three months includes E3. This is where I think we will see the momentum shift back from PlayStation to Xbox. That said, I think PlayStation are going to have a big year in terms of announcements! For those wondering about Nintendo’s mentions, (or lack-there-of) they never seem to lose momentum to PlayStation or Xbox. But before all of that…
April 28th sees S.T.A.L.K.E.R 2 Heart of Chernobyl launch on Xbox as a 3-month timed exclusive and along with many other Xbox marketed games, lands day 1 in Game Pass… This is big because it is the first real AAA next-gen game! We also have Warhammer Darktide launching in April for Xbox consoles, again day 1 in Game Pass. Before moving on, I want to quickly explain my thoughts on the momentum swinging back towards Xbox. The key factors for this are: Day 1 in Game Pass. Next Gen ONLY titles. Cloud gaming via Xbox One consoles and TVs – (A deal will be announced with TV manufactures (speculation)). Although throughout the year Xbox and PlayStation have comparable amounts of exclusive AAA games, it is Xbox with the first next gen only titles of their big games. Horizon, God of War and GT7 are all coming to PlayStation 4 too. Something that surprised many when announced, with the world believing that Sony would be the first to twist. The reason Xbox is able to do this is because of Xbox Game Pass Cloud being playable on Xbox One. They will keep a significant amount of install base on the console and by-pass the console shortages affecting the entire planet.
Moving into May and June Moving into May and E3. Regarding new games, I can only speculate here. I think this will be a great time for indie games. Summer Games Fest has really helped put a spotlight on the fantastic indie games out there and I see that continuing in 2022. Many will release in Q2 & 3. During E3 I am sure we will see the Todd Howard deep-dive (that we all live for) into Starfield gameplay. Redfall gameplay will be shown, which will get a release date too; perhaps even launching a playable beta/demo that will be available for anyone who pre-orders, or is subscribed to Game Pass.
I won’t go too deep into E3 speculation, that is another article for later in the year. But I do expect E3 to show us more HellBlade 2 gameplay, with a release date Q1 2023. And Forza Motorsport gameplay releasing Q4 2022, perhaps December tying in nicely with the end of the F1 season…
Q2 will finish with lots of cool indie games through Global Publishing and ID@Xbox. I am sure we will get Xbox Game Pass Cloud updates too, perhaps supporting new territories and the service coming out of it’s beta state. I could also see it going on TVs this year too, not wanting to lose any ground to Stadia who have already announced partnerships with TV manufacturers.
Here come the Xbox 1st party games
Q3 July August & September. Traditionally baron months for games. I would be willing to bet actual money that on top of Redfall launching in this window, (which has already been announced) there will be another surprise launch from Xbox Game Studios Studios/Bethesda… It may be an AA game or could be AAA. If I had to venture a wild guess, I would say it is from Compulsion games and it is only because the have been very quiet for a long time.
There are a huge number of games without release dates that are scheduled for 2022 and of the bigger ones I think Q3 could see A Plagues Tale: Requiem and/or potentially Hogwarts Legacy release in this Q3 window, although this would be an end of September job. I expect Atomic Heart to land in this time too and a slew of fantastic indies to boot. It will give them some real opportunities to build some player bases and get the spotlight they deserve. Again, press strategy will play a key role for Xbox during Q3. Expect announcements, teases and leaks to be rife as we move into September and ramping up for Q4.
Ladies and Gentlemen, Introducing: STARFIELD
Q4: Well, what do we know from an Xbox perspective… Scorn, potentially Arc 2 and Starfield. I truly believe that Xbox could close the year with just Starfield from their 1st party and it would be enough for them. Starfield is going to melt faces, and not just with pretty graphics. Like that Elder Scrolls 4: Oblivion game that really showed the world what the new systems could do. Starfield and will set the bar for the rest of the RPGs from this gen.
October will obviously have the new EA & Activision annual releases to come but no release dates for them either. Using mostly guesswork, I think Forza Motorsport will release in Q4, perhaps December. Along with DLC for Forza Horizon 5 & Halo Infinite with Sea of Thieves update coming earlier in the year.
I expect Q4 to contain one of two acquisition announcements (the other being around E3), potentially studios already partnering with Xbox. Possibly one or more of the following: IO Interactive, Avalanche, Crystal Dynamics but could just as easily be a PC developer or a mobile studio. My wildcard guess here is Studio Wildcard… If IO, Avalanche or Crystal Dynamics are acquired, I don’t think it will be until after the games they are working on release or are at least close to release. Arc 2 is supposed to release this year and their games definitiely tick a lot of the Xbox boxes.
To Summarize, Xbox will end the year in a similar way to 2021. On a high. But they will need to see this momentum continues into Qs 1&2 of 2023 if they are to continue to compete with PlayStation, who by the way will have a lot to play and show themselves!
